Polls
I fail to see the logic of providing polls as proof that any particular presidential candidate is likely or unlikely to succeed... The media enjoys hyping up their crown candidate by frequently (and by frequently, I mean daily) announcing that he or she is sooo far ahead of competition, based on "latest polls". I mean, really... That's about as vague as it gets. "Latest polls". Tell me, how many people did you poll? 100? 1,000? 100,000? What's the statstical margin for error? WHERE did you conduct the poll? A street corner in Los Angeles? An obsure page of your website? Did you have IP filtering? Cookie filtering?
Yes, I'm talking about the "grand news" that Obama is 12 points ahead of McCain, no, wait! 15 points ahead! No! Wait! 17 points ahead! Oh, it's only 13 points? It seems that each media outlet has their own numbers they're pulling out of their butts and using them to predict the entire presidential election. Heck, you shouldn't even bother voting because just you voting against Obama isn't going to change the lead! Might as well sit and watch the events unfold... It's completely futile for you to change the numbers. That's the entire aura surrounding these "reports". (More like opinion pieces.)
Yeah, well, one question I always ask when I hear these polls being quoted. Where was MY ballot? Why didn't I get to vote in this little poll of yours? "Oh, GS, well... We obviously can't conduct a poll of the entire population, so we just select a few to statistically and mathematically extrapolate the results on a larger scale! Our base is far beyond the minimum required for most satisfactory results, so everyone should be happy." Absolute hogwash, I say. If you take 100,000 people from the middle of California, you're going to get a major swing toward the liberal candidate. If you take 100,000 people from the middle of Indiana, you're going to get a major swing toward the conservative candidate. (And I'm guessing they didn't poll the residents of conservative Indiana.)
My point is... Why are they even bothering releasing these numbers? I don't care how statistically accurate the results are... Why are they bothering? Polls have absolutely no power over who wins the elections, as the previous two presidential elections are clearly evidence of. They poll a small section of the population, extrapolate it on percentage for the ENTIRE population, and declare a winner before it's even close to voting day, and when their predicted winner, in fact, LOSES the election, the entire Democratic party jumps and cries and yells about voter fraud and how the conservative candidate couldn't possibly have won without the help of miscounted ballots, cheating voters, and the favor of the court.
But, then again, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that is precisely the reaction the news media is shooting for when they release these numbers. They want to sway the voters before it's even time to do so... Bombard them with the idea that their candidate is the one constantly in the lead, and if that candidate loses, then everyone who believed they would win will make such an incredible racket and start accusing everyone else of cheating. Absolute chaos. You know, I even say this when the test numbers show when MY side is winning. Heaven knows the media would NEVER show McCain in any sort of a lead, but even if he were, I would much rather wait until the voting deadline when EVERYONE is finished voting before I start to party. Statistical accuracy means absolutely squat when ALL the people who influence the outcome finally have a chance to have their say. People might not bother voting on your poll and go out and vote for the real thing and throw everything off the mark... People might not bother voting for the real thing but manage to get on your little poll and still throw everything off the mark. It's stupid, it's pointless, it doesn't at all reflect what will actually happen, and I wish the media would stop pushing this garbage out on everyone, because you know there'll be people out there who are misled into believing that these numbers really DO paint a picture of what's going to happen.